World Leaders Blog

Ok, we’ve got through two presidential debates and one VP debate.

First of all an interesting fact. The VP debate was the second most viewed debate in history, 70 million viewers ( Carter/Reagan debate in 1980 drew about 80 ). More people watched it than the 2 presidential debates. An obvious explanation for this oddity is that people are more interested in entertainment than in politics. A lot of viewers tuned in to see what new goofups VP republican candidate Sarah Palin might make. Well, they were disappointed, she might not have answered all the questions asked, but she didn’t mess up as in some previous interviews. So, back to politics.

As to the presidential debates, most polls gave Barack Obama as the winner or tie. As Obama is ahead in the national polls, a tie is a win for him. Senator McCain had to pull some rabbit out of the hat, but no rabbit.

At this time Obama has the election sown up, hes ahead in “electoral votes” and in the general national polls. How much ? The place to see polls is realclearpolitics.com, but he’s from 4 to 8 percent up. Worse for McCain, Obama is eating away at some previous “safe” republican states.
So, there being only one more debate next week and about three weeks to go, the future looks grim for McCain. Obama has only to hold, although he seems to be trying to get farther ahead, not holding.

The Republicans still might win, if in the next three weeks something unforseen happens. As Obama is a pretty cool character, it seems unlikely (but not impossible) that he might do or say some gamechanging thing. Another possibility is some outside event that would impact on popular opinion, like a 9/11 attack that might make everyone run to McCains side for supposed security ( McCain is seen as tougher in this respect). Lastly, but even more unlikely, if some harm came to Obama. There are still quite a few people in the US that have hard racist ideas. This last would be a disaster for the US democracy, but America has a very violent history regarding presidents.

Next week we have the third and last presidential debate, we’ll see what that brings. My bet, not much.

Ok, we’ve gotten over the primaries, both conventions and we have the candidates.
What an election! Whoever wins will make election history in the US. We’ll either have an afro-american as president or a woman as vicepresident. Either way it will be an important first in american society. Just a few years back this would have been hard to believe.

Of course, there are differences in the selection  of these two groundbreaking choices ( previously in the case of a woman candidate, the democrats had proposed Gerladine Ferraro as VP to W. Mondale in 1984 ) : Obama was chosen through the primary system, while Palin was chosen directly by Senator McCain, not by popular vote. Still, it’s a measure of american society that the two major parties have each chosen an afro-american and a woman as candidates.

Now, whats the electoral situation to date? As usual as in previous elections, the country is about evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. At least in the popular vote. Just about every poll shows a statistical parity. But the US electoral system is not about the popular vote. A candidate can win more votes and yet lose the election as elections are defined by electoral votes, winner take all in each state.
As of today, the Democrats with Obama are ahead in electoral votes but that’s just for now.
CNN for example has Obama with 243 electoral vote (271 to win) between safe and leaning states, and McCain with 189.
RealClear Politics has Obama 217, McCain 174 and 147 undecided.
McCain’s intention of vote has risen after the convention and especially with the selection of governor Palin as running mate. Most polls to date show he’s catched up to and even passed Obama in the popular vote.
So, with less than two months to the election the race is definitely going to heat up, both sides are going to go on the offensive and negative politics are going to be the norm.

Truth to tell it’s going to be a terrific election!